Britain turns blue

The British people have voted. And the morning after, we are still not sure what they want. Maybe the British people themselves don't know.

These are the main facts so far:

• The Labour Party has had a terrible night, winning around 260 seats (down 80) and just 28 per cent or so of the vote.
• The Conservatives have had a very good night. They will be the largest party, both in terms of the number of seats (around 310, up more than 80) and the share of the vote (36 per cent). But they have failed to win an absolute majority (326 seats).
• The Liberal Democrats have had a very disappointing night. Their hopes of winning more votes than Labour were dashed. They gained around 23 per cent of the vote, but only around 55 seats, fewer than last time.

And what are the implications for each of the parties?

• Gordon Brown is clearly finished, even if, constitutionally, he could remain in Number 10 and try to cobble together a coalition. But he has lost all authority. His only chance of retaining any dignity is to resign both as prime minister and leader of the Labour Party. I expect him to do both.
• Morally, David Cameron, the Conservative leader, has won the right to try to form a coalition. As he rightly said: "The Labour government has lost its mandate to govern our country." Cameron's problem is that the Liberal Democrats are not his natural coalition partner. Their most dearly held policy is to introduce some form of proportional representation into the voting system. The Conservatives oppose this.
  
• The Liberal Democrats are in a quandary. Once again, they have failed to make an electoral breakthrough. They would happily have formed a coalition with a strong Labour Party and reformed the electoral system. But they can't possibly prop up an unpopular Labour government led by Gordon Brown, although they might support one with a new leader. On the other hand, supporting David Cameron's anti-European Conservatives would alienate Lib Dem supporters.

One plausible scenario is that David Cameron becomes prime minister and leads a minority government. But such governments are inherently unstable and would almost certainly lead to new elections later this year, in which Cameron would hope for clear majority.

So it looks like Prime Minister Cameron. But on what basis, and for how long, remains unclear.