Five certainties for 2010

First things first: a very Happy New Year to you all. We hope 2010 will be a successful year both privately and at work. At Business Spotlight, we will do all we can to help you improve your business communication skills. I would also like to thank you for your continuing support and feedback over the past 12 months.

Second things second (as we don't normally say in English): our regular Economics for Amateurs series will start up again next Monday (11 January). We also have plans to turn this series into a special collection.

Third, how about a few predictions for 2010? Actually, these predictions won't be as clear as they would have been if I had written them before Christmas. Let me explain.

In the middle of December I had a minor operation on my left hand, which meant that I only had one good hand for two weeks. This is a huge advantage for an economist, as it stops him or her from saying, "on the one hand...on the other hand". This was why former US president Harry S. Truman once famously said out of frustration, "give me a one-handed economist".

Anyway, here are five two-handed predictions for 2010:

1. Interest rates will stay at their current very low level or they will rise gently as central banks around the world try to slowly withdraw the stimuli they gave to their ailing economies in 2009. (These are the so-called "exit strategies".)
   
2. World stock markets will continue their upward trend of the past nine months or there will be another crash at some point (probably in the first, second, third or fourth quarter).
3. The world economy will recover from the recent "great recession" (which turned out not to be so great after all) or it will plunge into a further ("double-dip") recession.
4. Inflation will take off around the world or there will be severe deflation. (Oh dear, I seem to need a third hand here for the most likely option — that inflation remains low and stable.)
5. Gordon Brown or David Cameron will be the next British prime minister after the election that must take place in the first half of the year.