Gordon, going, gone

They’re changing the guard at Buckingham Palace. Well, not at Buckingham Place, to be precise, but rather at 10 Downing Street.

By the end of this week, Britain will have a new prime minister. Well, maybe not by the end of this week, but certainly in the near future.

All very clear and all very confusing. The clear parts are these: Britain's general election is on Thursday, 6 May. And the current prime minister, Gordon Brown, hasn’t got a cat in hell's chance of keeping his position.

Brown had no chance even before his mega-gaffe last week when he forgot that he was still wearing a microphone and was heard describing a female voter as "bigoted", after she disagreed with him on immigration.

Brown already had no chance for three reasons. First, after 13 years of Labour Party rule, the Brits want to see new faces running their country. Second, Gordon Brown is a liability in the age of TV politics. He appears cold and uncharismatic, lacking even the slimy charm of his predecessor, Tony Blair, who won three elections.

Third, the financial crisis, and Britain’s appalling budget deficit — at around 12 per cent of GDP, it is of almost Greek proportions — have destroyed Labour’s economic credibility.

So far, so clear. The confusing bit is what comes after Gordon Brown. In normal British circumstances, the leader of the main opposition party — in this case, David Cameron of the Conservatives — would move smoothly into 10 Downing Street.

But these are not normal circumstances. The clever money is still on Cameron to become prime minister. But his party will struggle to convince enough people that it should be given a majority in the House of Commons.

Instead, many anti-Labour votes will go to the third party, the Liberal Democrats, who are led by the charismatic and telegenic Nick Clegg and who are to the left of the Labour Party on many issues. The probable result: a very un-British coalition, which may take some time to put together.

The Conservatives have tried their best to spook everyone into believing that a hung parliament would be a disaster for Britain, its currency and its economy. The truth is very different. The financial markets will probably like the sight of politicians being forced to compromise and cooperate.

And whose fault is all this? Gordon Brown’s, actually. When he became Labour leader back in 2007, he had the chance to call a quick election in the autumn, and ride his honeymoon wave to a five-year personal mandate.

Brown bottled it back in 2007. This week, he will pay the political price for his timidity.