His right foot

I'd like your permission to combine two of my favourite topics once again: football and economics. (I guess if you don't give me your permission, you will click away to something more interesting, like these brilliant goals.)

I think I have a good excuse this time. Well, three good excuses actually.

First, international football has dominated office discussions this past week. Bayern Munich's thrilling last-minute win against Manchester United in the Champions League quarter-final last Tuesday was revenge for United's late win in the final of the tournament in 1999. For those who live on planet Mars, the second leg of this quarter-final is on Wednesday, 8 April.

Second, the biggest talking point after the game was the injury to the right foot of Wayne Rooney, England's only truly top-class player and the country's main hope of winning the World Cup in South Africa this summer.

Rooney's injury — following one to David Beckham, which has ruled him out of the tournament — has dominated the sports pages. As one wag said, "a right foot hasn't received so much attention since Cinderella".

And what about economics? Well, that's my third excuse. I'm reading a brilliant book, Soccernomics, by Simon Kuper, a Financial Times sports journalist, and Stefan Szymanski, a professor of economics in London.

The book provides many fascinating insights into the game. For example, teams that pay higher wages tend to perform better, but there is no relationship between the amounts paid in transfer fees for players and subsequent success. Many teams simply pay too much for average players.

Another insight is that, contrary to the belief of its fans, the English team — which hasn't won a tournament since 1966 ("44 years of hurt") — doesn't actually underperform. Nor is the team particularly unlucky. In fact, it does as well as can be expected given its population, income level and experience, three key factors in explaining success statistically.

It is sobering to be told this at a time when England (the country and the team) is getting into its usual pre-World Cup state of hyperbolic anticipation ("This time we must win").

Statistically speaking, England are very unlikely to win the World Cup, with or without Rooney's right foot. On the other hand, we do have by far the best soccer songs, including this gem from 1982. And this time...