It's not over until...now!

Part of me feels sorry for John McCain. I mean, imagine that you serve your country in war, are put in prison, tortured, survive, become a respected, if maverick, politician and, at the age of 72, get the chance to become president of your country. And then...

And then comes along the biggest financial and banking crisis for years. This is not only bad news for you as a member of the ruling party in itself. It also directs attention to an area of policy that you don’t really know much about: the economy.

“The fundamentals of our economy are strong.” McCain must regret saying this at a rally in Florida on 15 September. Not because this isn’t true — the US economy will remain the world’s economic powerhouse, despite the current problems — but because it made McCain look out of touch.

There are still three weeks to go in the election contest, but the boring truth is this: it’s over. Unless Bin Laden attacks the Statue of Liberty, Barack Obama will be the next US president.

Indeed, my guess is that Obama is going to win easily. The last two US elections were so close that we have got used to thinking this must always be the case. Not this time. The financial tsunami and Obama’s “change” mantra should mean that he sweeps most of the battleground states such as Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Check here for the latest forecasts.

Personally, I find neither candidate very convincing on economic matters. But McCain has looked particularly shaky — less the candidate of experience than the candidate of exhaustion.

So president Obama it is. Start getting used to it. I like the idea a lot. And most Americans do, too. They feel — just as people in Britain did in 1997 — that it really is time for change.