Parrot fashion

Maynard, my pet parrot, has been behaving very strangely this past week.

Now, as many of you are aware, Maynard is no ordinary parrot. Yes, I know that all pet-owners think their pets are special, just as all parents think their kids are special. But Maynard really is special. I mean how many parrots can claim to be professional economists. I rest my case.

But something is definitely up with Maynard at the moment. For months, he just sat quietly in the corner of my office, rarely saying anything more than "supply and demand".

This is his standard answer when I ask him for the explantion of an important economic problem, such as, "Why did Madonna cancel her planned concert in Slovenia?"

But now Maynard is so cheerful and chatty. It is unbearable. If I didn't know him better, I would say he is in love.

The key moment came last week, when he was visited by three charming daughters of colleagues of mine, all enjoying their summer holidays.

The three girls, all under 10, gave Maynard more love and affection in one morning than he has received from me all year. No wonder he responded so positively, saying things like, "I'm just hanging around here", "give me a kiss" and "goodnight". Please!

But I was convinced that his good mood was more than just the result of feminine charm. Finally, I discovered what I think is the cause.

I read a report about a parrot in South Korea called Ddalgi, which means "Strawberry". Ddalgi beat eight stockbrokers in a competition to pick the best shares. Only two stockbrokers achieved a better return than Ddalgi, who choose her share portfolio with her beak.

This reminded me of a competition the Wall Street Journal used to run between financial experts and a fictitious (I think) monkey, who chose shares by (metaphorically) throwing darts at the financial pages of the paper. Often, the monkey won.

In fact, neither experiment should be a surprise. If current share prices incorporate all relevant known information — as the efficient-market hypothesis claims — then these prices can change only as a result of "news", which, by definition, is unknown. So a random choice of shares should be just as good an investment strategy as sophisticated analysis.

Maynard, of course, suddenly isn't listening to economic theory. He thinks parrots — and, no doubt, monkeys — are simply smarter than humans when it comes to investing money.

No wonder he's so chirpy. Although I suspect he really is in love — not only with the three charming girls, but also with Ddalgi. Now I'm just waiting for him to say, "Strawberry, Strawberry — give me a kiss!"