31.10.2018
Anyone who has been following the Brexit discussions this year knows that they have become a total fiasco.
It is now more than two years since the referendum in 2016 and just five months before Britain is to be due to do sth.etw. tun werden/sollendue to leave the European Union on 29 March 2019. And there is still absolutely no sign of a deal being reached to regulate the terms of the UK’s future relationship with the EU.
This shouldn’t come as a surprise. It’s very hard to reach a deal when one side — in this case Britain — doesn’t know what it wants.
A small group of anti-EU British politicians and economists believes the UK should simply walk away from the EU, pay the absolute minimum in remaining financial obligations, trade with the EU on World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and to carve out sth.etw. erarbeitencarve out free trade deals with the rest of the world.
It’s very hard to reach a deal when one side doesn’t know what it wants
Opponents of this “no-deal” scenario to argueden Standpunkt vertretenargue that this would be the worst of all possible options for the UK and would result in a significant fall in GDP (gross domestic product)BIP (Bruttoinlandsprodukt)GDP. Britain would not just lose out on tariff-freezollfreitariff-free trade with the EU, but also on the new trade deals that the EU is to negotiate sth.etw. aushandelnnegotiating with countries such as Canada and Japan. You can read more about this no-deal debate in the Head-to-Head section of the current issueAusgabeissue of Business Spotlight (or here on our website).
In July, the British government came up with a proposal — the so-called “Chequers” plan, named after the prime minister’s official country house — that would in effect leave Britain half in and half out of the EU, controlling immigration but still accepting many EU rules.
That proposal to anger sb.jmdn. verärgernangered those on the right of the Conservative Party who want a cleanhier: endgültigclean break with the EU and prefer no deal to such a fudgeSchummelei; hier: fauler Kompromissfudge. The Chequers plan also to annoy sb.jmdn. verärgernannoyed the EU, which sees the UK as trying to to cherry picksich die Rosinen herauspickencherry pick the bits they like about the European Union and to ditch sth.etw. wegschmeißen; hier: verwerfenditch the rest.
There is currently no majority in the British parliament for the Chequers proposal — or, indeed, any other plan. The whole thing is a complete messChaosmess, and, despite the EU’s proven ability to come up with fudgedhier: aus weichen Kompromissen bestehendfudged deals on all kinds of issueFrage, Problemissues, it is very hard to see how this can be to resolve sth.etw. lösenresolved in time for an orderly Brexit in March next year.
An extended deadline and/or a long transition period now seems likely. Nor can we rule out the possibility of another general election in Britain and/or a referendum (or “people’s vote”) in the event of a deal being reached between the British government and the EU.
And remember: Brexiteers claimed that leaving the EU was going to to be a piece of cakeein Kinderspiel seinbe a piece of cake. A cherry cake, no doubt.
In his blog, Ian McMaster has been commenting on global business issues since 2002. For older entries, see the blog archive on our former website.